Carlo Kopp's Homepage

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Hypergames, Systems, Networks and
Information Conflict

Introduction

Hypergames are meta-games which permit modelling of deception and misperception. This area of research has been largely dormant since the 1980s. Current research involves exploration of the utility of hypergames in modelling Information Warfare, biological systems and the evolutionary implications of hypergames.

Large systems such as economies or military forces often exhibit unusually complex behaviours. Historical models for the latter include Lanchester's exchange rate equations, or the application of Metcalfe's Law to the modelling of networked systems. Further research is needed to fully quantify the properties of such systems.

Teaching Materials

Honours Advanced Module CSE 468 Information Conflict Semester 1 2006

Topic Schedule:

Lecture Number	Topic
1	Introduction and overview - Lecture Notes
2	Shannon's information theory concepts - Lecture Notes
3	Basic game theory concepts - Lecture Notes
4	Four canonical strategies of information conflict vs Shannon's information theory - Lecture Notes
5	Compound information conflict strategies and using graphs to model these - Lecture Notes
6	Hypergames vs information conflict strategies - Lecture Notes
7	Evolutionary nature of information conflict and biological examples - Lecture Notes
8	Forms of information conflict, Class I, II, III, IV info rmation warfare, denial of service attack classification; Analysis and modelling of information conflict attacks and techniques - Lecture Notes
9	Classical deception techniques, perception management, propaganda, advertising - Lecture Notes
10	Information conflict vs copyright, privacy, spam, espionage, surveillance,hacking and cyberwar, viruses/worms, and identity theft - Lecture Notes
11	Information conflict vs basic concepts and risks in computer security and encryption - Lecture Notes
12	Problems arising in law enforcement and organisational security due to the proliferation of information conflict techniques - Lecture Notes
13	Revision - Lecture Notes

Publications

Kopp, Carlo, Boyd, Metcalfe and Amdahl - Modelling Networked Warfighting Systems,Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 5th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2004. Slides (PDF).

The use of Metcalfe's Law as a measure for assessing capability gains in networked warfighting systems is well established. Metcalfe's Law provides an incomplete model, in that it can only describe gains in the Observation Orientation phases of Boyd s OODA loop. The paper explores the utility of Amdahl's law as a model for determining bounds on networked warfighting system capability which arise from constraints in the Decision Action phases of the OODA loop, and analyses the limitations of these three models when used as an abstraction to describe such systems.

Kopp, Carlo; Mills, Bruce, Information Warfare And Evolution, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 3rd Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2002. Slides (PDF).

This paper reviews the four canonical strategies of Information Warfare and asserts that Information Warfare is an artifact of evolution in biological systems: the use of Information Warfare techniques by organisms aids survival in a competitive environment. A range of specific biological examples are explored to support this assertion.

Kopp, Carlo, Shannon, Hypergames And Information Warfare, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 3rd Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2002. Slides (PDF).

Shannon's Information Theory provides a robust and quantifiable model for explaining the fundamental paradigm of Information Warfare. This paper reviews the four canonical strategies of Information Warfare, in the context of Shannon's models and further extends these models into the domain of hypergame theory.

Kopp, Carlo, Boyd, Metcalfe and Amdahl - Modelling Networked Warfighting Systems, Proceedings of the 5th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference (AIWSC 2004), Perth, WA, Australia, 25-26 November 2004, Edith Cowan University, WA, Australia, ISBN: 0-7298-0569-7, pp 186-197. Slides (PDF)

The use of Metcalfe’s Law as a measure for assessing capability gains in networked warfighting systems is well established. Metcalfe’s Law provides an incomplete model, in that it can only describe gains in the Observation Orientation phases of Boyd’s OODA loop. The paper explores the utility of Amdahl’s law as a model for determining bounds on networked warfighting system capability which arise from constraints in the Decision Action phases of the OODA loop, and analyses the limitations of these three models when used as an abstraction to describe such systems.

Kopp, Carlo, Reflections on Information Age Air Warfare, Journal of Information Warfare, Edith Cowan University, Perth, WA, Australia, ISSN: 1445-3312, Vol 3, Issue 3, pp 11-28.
The information age has produced some profound shifts in military power,and nowhere has this been more apparent than in the domain of air power. A digitised air force represents the most pronounced case study of the impact ofinformation technology and networking on achievable combat effect. For a modern military to position itself properly in this evolving paradigm of warfare, it will need to make many strategic choices in technology, system architectures and doctrine. Success in warfare has always been tied to the technological element, and in the information age this reality becomes increasingly visible. Bad choices in this decade could have consequences which persist for many decades into the future. This paper will explore the pivotal relationships between the information gathering, low observable, information networking and evolutionary aspects of a modern force, using air power as the case study paradigm.

Lachlan Brumley, Carlo Kopp and Kevin Korb, Misperception, Self-Deception and Information Warfare, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 6th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2002. Paper (PDF).

Deception techniques are Information Warfare strategies commonly used by biological organisms and organisations to gain an advantage during competition. In this paper we examine two related techniques, misperception and self-deception, which we relate to the four canonical Information Warfare strategies and Boyd's OODA loop model.

Kopp, Carlo, The Analysis of Compound Information Warfare Strategies, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 6th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2005. Paper (PDF).

The practical defensive and offensive application of Information Warfare most frequently involves the use of complicated compound strategies, in which multichannel and multilayered attacks must be analysed. This paper presents a systematic approach to the analysis problem, which is exploitable for defensive and offensive purposes.

Kopp, Carlo, Classical Deception Techniques and Perception Management vs. the Four Strategies of Information Warfare, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 6th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2005. Paper (PDF).

The use of deception techniques for intelligence operations, strategic and tactical deception in war, politics, business and media manipulation is well established and well documented. This paper analyses established deception techniques in the context of the four canonical strategies of Information Warfare, to establish an information theoretical and game theoretical framework for future modelling and analysis.

Kopp, Carlo, Considerations on Deception Techniques Used in Political and Product Marketing, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 7th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2006, December 4th-5th, Perth. Paper (PDF), Slides (PDF).

This paper explores three deception techniques which are widely used in political and product marketing. These techniques are ‘deception by omission’, ‘deception by saturation’ and ‘deception by spin’. These techniques are newly analysed in the framework of the four canonical strategies of Information Warfare and Shannon’s capacity and entropy theorems, and their respective strengths and weaknesses established. Specific strategies for the defeat of these deception techniques are discussed.

L. Brumley, C. Kopp and K. Korb, The Orientation step of the OODA loop and Information Warfare, Conference Paper, Proceedings of the 7th Australian Information Warfare & Security Conference 2006, December 4th-5th, Perth. Paper (PDF).

This paper develops a theoretical model of the internal processes of the Orientation step of Boyd’s OODA loop model. The Orientation step is important from an Information Warfare perspective as it is where the decisionmaker combines their existing knowledge with new information. Any new information is a potential target for manipulation by Information Warfare attacks. The operation of the two Information Warfare attacks that target the Orientation step, deception and self-deception, are examined with the proposed model.

Theses and Projects

Lachlan Brumley, HYPANT: A Hypergame Analysis Tool, Honours Thesis, 2003, Monash University SCSSE (Website).

HYPANT is a hypergame simulator which implements the Fraser-Hipel algorithm for hypergame analysis. The tool was implemented with the aim of producing a GPL code package suitable for use in more ambitious projects.

Lachlan Brumley, PhD Project (Website).

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