CSE458 Bayesian Networks (1st semester 2007)

Lecturers: A/Prof Ann Nicholson and Dr. David Albrecht

Lectures: Monday 10-12, Weeks 2-7 (1st half of semester)

Ann Nicholson's office hours: By appointment. (Room 119, Bldg 75)

David Albrecht's office hours: By appointment. (Room 113, Bldg 75)

Lecture Outline (Ann Nicholson)

• Lecture 1
(David Albrecht)
• Introduction to decision theory
• More on decision analysis
• Lecture 2 (David Albrecht)
  • Utility
  • Probability
• Lecture 3 (Ann Nicholson)
  • Introduction to Bayesian networks
  • Inference Algorithms
  • Dynamic Bayesian networks
• Lecture 4 (David Albrecht)
  • Decision networks
  • Evaluating DNS
• Lecture 5 (Ann Nicholson)
  • Knowledge engineering Bayesian networks (KEBN)
  • KEBN Case Study 1: Environmental risk assessment (Slides (ppt))
  • KEBN Case Study 2: Predicting cardiovascular risk using epidemiological data (Slides (ppt))
  • KEBN Case Study 3: Forecasting Fog
• Lecture 6 (Ann Nicholson)
  • Learning Bayesian networks

Assessment

• Decision Analysis Exercise (5%): Due 23/3 (End of Week 4)
• Modelling Assignment(10%). Due 30/3 (End of Week 5)
• Decision Network Exercise (5%): Due 5/4 (End of Week 6)
• Programming assignment (80\%)

Readings for lectures

1. Raiffa (1970), Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainity, Addison-Wesley. Chapters 2 & 3.
2. Russell & Norvig (1995), Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, Prentice Hall. Chapter 14.

1. Raiffa (1970), Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainity, Addison-Wesley. Chapters 4 & 5.

1. Korb & Nicholson (2004), Bayesian Artificial Intelligence , Chapman Hall / CRC Press. Chapter 2, 3.
2. Russell & Norvig (1995), Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, Prentice Hall. Chapter 16.

Lectures 5 and 6

1. Korb & Nicholson (2004), Bayesian Artificial Intelligence , Chapman Hall / CRC Press. Ch 9, 11
2. M.J. Druzsdel & L.C. van der Gaag (Eds.) (2000) "Building probabilistic networks: Where do the numbers come from?" Special Section IEEE Trans. on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 12(4), pp 481-528.
3. Russell & Norvig (1995), Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, Prentice Hall. 15.5, 16.7.

4. O. Woodberry, A.E. Nicholson, K.B. Korb, and C. Pollino. Parameterising Bayesian Networks. In G. I. Webb and X. Yu (eds). Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, (Proceedings of the 17th Australian Joint Conference on Advances in Artificial Intelligence [AI'04], Cairns, Australia, 4-6 December 2004), Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, Vol 3339, pp 1101-1107.

5. C.A. Pollino, O. Woodberry, A. Nicholson, K. Korb, B. T. Hart. Parameterisation of a Bayesian network for use in an ecological risk management case study. To appear in the Journal of Environment and Modelling Simulation, Special Issue on Bayesian Networks in environmental management and planning.

6. C. Twardy, A.E. Nicholson, K.B. Korb, J. McNeil (2006). Epidemiological Data Mining of Cardiovascular Bayesian Networks. local pdf copy Electronic Journal of Health Informatics, Vol 1, No. 1.

Interesting WWW Pages

Bayesian Network Software

• Netica
• Hugin
• Analytica
• JavaBayes
• Bayesware
• Genie
• BN Power Constructor
• WinMine Tookkit

Bayesian Network Web Resources

• Russell Greiner's Bayesian Belief Network site
• Nir Friedman's Bayesian Network Repository
• Kevin Murphy's BN site