// ~->[DNET-1]->~ // File created by someone at MonashUniv using Netica 2.06 on Jun 08, 2004 at 13:01:38. bnet Oil_Gas_net { autoupdate = TRUE; comment = "A decision network based on the 'Oil Wildcatter' influence diagram of Raiffa68, but this network \ includes drilling for gas, has multiple value nodes, and eliminates some no-forgetting links. \n\ This network shows only dependencies, and does not include any numerical relationships. \n\ From Zhang94, p. 21."; whenchanged = 1086663695; visual V1 { defdispform = BELIEFBARS; nodelabeling = TITLE; NodeMaxNumEntries = 50; nodefont = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 10;}; linkfont = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; windowposn = (45, 2, 565, 475); resolution = 72; drawingbounds = (1104, 730); showpagebreaks = FALSE; usegrid = TRUE; gridspace = (6, 6); PrinterSetting A { margins = (1270, 1270, 1270, 1270); landscape = FALSE; magnify = 1; }; }; node Oil { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; states = (Dry, Wet, Soaking); parents = (); probs = // Dry Wet Soaking (0.5, 0.3, 0.2); title = "Amount of Oil\nUnderground"; whenchanged = 1086663186; belief = (0.5, 0.3, 0.2); visual V1 { center = (97, 48); height = 1; }; }; node Gas { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; states = (None, Little, Much); parents = (); probs = // None Little Much (0.5, 0.3, 0.2); title = "Amount of Gas\nUnderground"; whenchanged = 1086663196; belief = (0.5, 0.3, 0.2); visual V1 { center = (612, 48); height = 2; }; }; node Structure { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; states = (None, Open, Closed); parents = (Oil, Gas); probs = // None Open Closed // Oil Gas (((0.6, 0.3, 0.1), // Dry None (0.4, 0.4, 0.2), // Dry Little (0.2, 0.5, 0.3)), // Dry Much ((0.3, 0.4, 0.3), // Wet None (0.2, 0.45, 0.35), // Wet Little (0.1, 0.5, 0.4)), // Wet Much ((0.1, 0.4, 0.5), // Soaking None (0.06, 0.42, 0.52), // Soaking Little (0, 0.45, 0.55))); // Soaking Much ; title = "Seismic\nStructure"; whenchanged = 1086663191; belief = (0.3126, 0.3987, 0.2887); visual V1 { center = (354, 48); height = 3; }; }; node Test { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; states = (Do_test, No_test); parents = (); functable = Do_test; title = "Test?"; whenchanged = 1086654363; visual V1 { center = (96, 126); height = 7; }; }; node Result { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; states = (None, Open, Closed, No_result); parents = (Test, Structure); probs = // None Open Closed No result // Test Structure (((0.98, 0.02, 0, 0), // Do test None (0.1, 0.9, 0, 0), // Do test Open (0, 0.05, 0.95, 0)), // Do test Closed ((0, 0, 0, 1), // No test None (0, 0, 0, 1), // No test Open (0, 0, 0, 1))); // No test Closed ; title = "Test Result"; whenchanged = 1086663201; belief = (0.173109, 0.189759, 0.137132, 0.5); visual V1 { center = (354, 138); height = 15; }; }; node Drill { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; states = (Drill, Dont_drill); parents = (Test, Result); functable = // Test Result ((Drill, // Do test None Drill, // Do test Open Drill, // Do test Closed Drill), // Do test No result (Drill, // No test None Drill, // No test Open Drill, // No test Closed Drill)); // No test No result ; title = "Drill?"; whenchanged = 1086487212; visual V1 { center = (354, 222); height = 16; }; }; node OP { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; numstates = 2; parents = (Oil, Drill); probs = // state0 state1 // Oil Drill (((0.6, 0.4), // Dry Drill (0.4, 0.6)), // Dry Dont drill ((0.9, 0.1), // Wet Drill (0.1, 0.9)), // Wet Dont drill ((0.05, 0.95), // Soaking Drill (0.95, 0.05))); // Soaking Dont drill ; title = "Oil Produced"; whenchanged = 1086663645; belief = (0.5, 0.5); visual V1 { center = (84, 282); height = 6; link 1 { path = ((95, 83), (85, 255)); }; }; }; node OM { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; numstates = 2; parents = (); probs = // state0 state1 (0.5, 0.5); title = "Oil Market"; whenchanged = 1086663276; belief = (0.5, 0.5); visual V1 { center = (192, 480); height = 11; }; }; node OSP { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; numstates = 2; parents = (Test, Result, Drill, OM); functable = // Test Result Drill OM ((((#0, // Do test None Drill state0 #0), // Do test None Drill state1 (#0, // Do test None Dont drill state0 #0)), // Do test None Dont drill state1 ((#0, // Do test Open Drill state0 #0), // Do test Open Drill state1 (#0, // Do test Open Dont drill state0 #0)), // Do test Open Dont drill state1 ((#0, // Do test Closed Drill state0 #0), // Do test Closed Drill state1 (#0, // Do test Closed Dont drill state0 #0)), // Do test Closed Dont drill state1 ((#0, // Do test No result Drill state0 #0), // Do test No result Drill state1 (#0, // Do test No result Dont drill state0 #0))), // Do test No result Dont drill state1 (((#0, // No test None Drill state0 #0), // No test None Drill state1 (#0, // No test None Dont drill state0 #0)), // No test None Dont drill state1 ((#0, // No test Open Drill state0 #0), // No test Open Drill state1 (#0, // No test Open Dont drill state0 #0)), // No test Open Dont drill state1 ((#0, // No test Closed Drill state0 #0), // No test Closed Drill state1 (#0, // No test Closed Dont drill state0 #0)), // No test Closed Dont drill state1 ((#0, // No test No result Drill state0 #0), // No test No result Drill state1 (#0, // No test No result Dont drill state0 #0)))); // No test No result Dont drill state1 ; title = "Oil Sale\nPrice"; whenchanged = 1086487209; visual V1 { center = (264, 336); height = 12; }; }; node OPr { kind = UTILITY; discrete = FALSE; measure = RATIO; chance = DETERMIN; parents = (OP, OM, OSP); functable = // OP OM OSP (((3000, // state0 state0 state0 -2000), // state0 state0 state1 (4000, // state0 state1 state0 -800)), // state0 state1 state1 ((200, // state1 state0 state0 -5), // state1 state0 state1 (10000, // state1 state1 state0 -40000))); // state1 state1 state1 ; title = "Oil Profit"; whenchanged = 1086487044; visual V1 { center = (60, 450); height = 5; link 2 { path = ((113, 464), (99, 460)); }; }; }; node GP { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; numstates = 2; parents = (Gas, Drill); probs = // state0 state1 // Gas Drill (((0.6, 0.4), // None Drill (0.4, 0.6)), // None Dont drill ((0.9, 0.1), // Little Drill (0.1, 0.9)), // Little Dont drill ((0.05, 0.95), // Much Drill (0.95, 0.05))); // Much Dont drill ; title = "Gas Produced"; whenchanged = 1086663591; belief = (0.5, 0.5); visual V1 { center = (690, 264); height = 8; }; }; node GM { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; chance = CHANCE; numstates = 2; parents = (); probs = // state0 state1 (0.5, 0.5); title = "Gas Market"; whenchanged = 1086663293; belief = (0.5, 0.5); visual V1 { center = (534, 474); height = 9; }; }; node GSP { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; numstates = 2; parents = (Test, Result, Drill, OM, OSP, GM); functable = // Test Result Drill OM OSP GM ((((((#0, // Do test None Drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // Do test None Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test None Drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // Do test None Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test None Drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // Do test None Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test None Drill state1 state1 state0 #1))), // Do test None Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // Do test None Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // Do test None Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test None Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // Do test None Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test None Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // Do test None Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test None Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #1)))), // Do test None Dont drill state1 state1 state1 ((((#0, // Do test Open Drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Open Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Open Drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // Do test Open Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test Open Drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Open Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Open Drill state1 state1 state0 #1))), // Do test Open Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // Do test Open Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Open Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Open Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // Do test Open Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test Open Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Open Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Open Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #1)))), // Do test Open Dont drill state1 state1 state1 ((((#0, // Do test Closed Drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Closed Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Closed Drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // Do test Closed Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test Closed Drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Closed Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Closed Drill state1 state1 state0 #1))), // Do test Closed Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // Do test Closed Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Closed Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Closed Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // Do test Closed Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test Closed Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // Do test Closed Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test Closed Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #1)))), // Do test Closed Dont drill state1 state1 state1 ((((#0, // Do test No result Drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // Do test No result Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test No result Drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // Do test No result Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test No result Drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // Do test No result Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test No result Drill state1 state1 state0 #0))), // Do test No result Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // Do test No result Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // Do test No result Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test No result Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // Do test No result Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // Do test No result Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // Do test No result Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // Do test No result Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #0))))), // Do test No result Dont drill state1 state1 state1 (((((#0, // No test None Drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // No test None Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test None Drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // No test None Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test None Drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // No test None Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test None Drill state1 state1 state0 #0))), // No test None Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // No test None Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // No test None Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test None Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // No test None Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test None Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // No test None Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test None Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #0)))), // No test None Dont drill state1 state1 state1 ((((#0, // No test Open Drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // No test Open Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Open Drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // No test Open Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test Open Drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // No test Open Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Open Drill state1 state1 state0 #0))), // No test Open Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // No test Open Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // No test Open Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Open Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // No test Open Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test Open Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // No test Open Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Open Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #0)))), // No test Open Dont drill state1 state1 state1 ((((#0, // No test Closed Drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // No test Closed Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Closed Drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // No test Closed Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test Closed Drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // No test Closed Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Closed Drill state1 state1 state0 #0))), // No test Closed Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // No test Closed Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #0), // No test Closed Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Closed Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #0)), // No test Closed Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test Closed Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #0), // No test Closed Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test Closed Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #0)))), // No test Closed Dont drill state1 state1 state1 ((((#0, // No test No result Drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // No test No result Drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test No result Drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // No test No result Drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test No result Drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // No test No result Drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test No result Drill state1 state1 state0 #1))), // No test No result Drill state1 state1 state1 (((#0, // No test No result Dont drill state0 state0 state0 #1), // No test No result Dont drill state0 state0 state1 (#0, // No test No result Dont drill state0 state1 state0 #1)), // No test No result Dont drill state0 state1 state1 ((#0, // No test No result Dont drill state1 state0 state0 #1), // No test No result Dont drill state1 state0 state1 (#0, // No test No result Dont drill state1 state1 state0 #1)))))); // No test No result Dont drill state1 state1 state1 ; title = "Gas Sale\nPrice"; whenchanged = 1086487047; visual V1 { center = (534, 348); height = 10; link 4 { path = ((262, 453), (465, 376)); }; }; }; node DC { kind = UTILITY; discrete = FALSE; measure = RATIO; chance = DETERMIN; parents = (Drill); functable = // Drill (40000, // Drill 0); // Dont drill ; title = "Drill\nCost"; whenchanged = 1086486901; visual V1 { center = (516, 174); height = 13; }; }; node GPr { kind = UTILITY; discrete = FALSE; measure = RATIO; chance = DETERMIN; parents = (GP, GM, GSP); functable = // GP GM GSP (((10000, // state0 state0 state0 -60000), // state0 state0 state1 (2000, // state0 state1 state0 -70)), // state0 state1 state1 ((400, // state1 state0 state0 20000), // state1 state0 state1 (-500, // state1 state1 state0 3000))); // state1 state1 state1 ; title = "Gas Profit"; whenchanged = 1086487165; visual V1 { center = (618, 408); height = 4; link 2 { path = ((569, 447), (607, 418)); }; link 3 { path = ((571, 376), (605, 399)); }; }; }; node TC { kind = UTILITY; discrete = FALSE; measure = RATIO; chance = DETERMIN; parents = (Test); functable = // Test (10000, // Do test 0); // No test ; title = "Test\nCost"; whenchanged = 1086663695; visual V1 { center = (126, 222); height = 14; }; }; ElimOrder = (OP, GP, Oil, Gas, Structure, GSP, GM, OSP, OM, Drill, Result, Test); };