// ~->[DNET-1]->~ // File created by someone at MonashUniv using Netica 2.06 on Jun 05, 2004 at 10:51:35. bnet urn { autoupdate = TRUE; whenchanged = 1086396673; visual V1 { defdispform = BELIEFBARS; nodelabeling = TITLE; NodeMaxNumEntries = 50; nodefont = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 10;}; linkfont = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; windowposn = (0, 0, 642, 348); resolution = 72; drawingbounds = (1153, 769); showpagebreaks = FALSE; usegrid = TRUE; gridspace = (6, 6); PrinterSetting A { margins = (1270, 1270, 1270, 1270); landscape = FALSE; magnify = 1; }; }; node Type { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (Type1, Type2); parents = (); probs = // Type1 Type2 (0.8, 0.2); title = "Urn Type"; whenchanged = 1081916866; belief = (0.8, 0.2); visual V1 { center = (312, 54); height = 3; }; }; node Experiment { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; chance = DETERMIN; states = (No_sample, Sample_1_ball, Sample_2_balls, Sequential_samples); parents = (); functable = Sequential_samples; title = "Which experiment?"; whenchanged = 1082012183; belief = (0, 0, 0, 1); visual V1 { center = (132, 138); height = 2; }; }; node Draw3 { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (Red, Black, None); inputs = (Type, Experiment); parents = (Type, Experiment); probs = // Red Black None // Type Experiment (((0, 0, 1), // Type1 No sample (0.4, 0.6, 0), // Type1 Sample 1 ball (0.4, 0.6, 0), // Type1 Sample 2 balls (0.4, 0.6, 0)), // Type1 Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 No sample (0.9, 0.1, 0), // Type2 Sample 1 ball (0.9, 0.1, 0), // Type2 Sample 2 balls (0.9, 0.1, 0))); // Type2 Sequential sampl ; title = "Draw 1 Ball "; whenchanged = 1082011846; belief = (0.375, 0.375, 0.25); visual V1 { center = (114, 330); height = 9; }; }; node Continue { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; states = (true, false); parents = (Experiment, Draw3); functable = // Experiment Draw3 ((true, // No sample Red true, // No sample Black true), // No sample None (true, // Sample 1 ball Red true, // Sample 1 ball Black true), // Sample 1 ball None (true, // Sample 2 balls Red true, // Sample 2 balls Black true), // Sample 2 balls None (true, // Sequential sampl Red false, // Sequential sampl Black true)); // Sequential sampl None ; title = "Continue"; whenchanged = 1082005527; belief = (1, 0); visual V1 { center = (744, 264); height = 7; }; }; node Replacement { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; chance = DETERMIN; states = (true, false); parents = (Experiment, Draw3, Continue); functable = // Experiment Draw3 Continue (((true, // No sample Red true true), // No sample Red false (true, // No sample Black true true), // No sample Black false (true, // No sample None true true)), // No sample None false ((true, // Sample 1 ball Red true true), // Sample 1 ball Red false (true, // Sample 1 ball Black true true), // Sample 1 ball Black false (true, // Sample 1 ball None true true)), // Sample 1 ball None false ((false, // Sample 2 balls Red true true), // Sample 2 balls Red false (true, // Sample 2 balls Black true true), // Sample 2 balls Black false (true, // Sample 2 balls None true true)), // Sample 2 balls None false ((false, // Sequential sampl Red true true), // Sequential sampl Red false (true, // Sequential sampl Black true true), // Sequential sampl Black false (true, // Sequential sampl None true true))); // Sequential sampl None false ; whenchanged = 1082002349; belief = (0, 1); visual V1 { center = (744, 366); height = 6; }; }; node Draw4 { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (Red, Black, None); inputs = (Type, , , , Experiment); parents = (Type, Continue, Replacement, Draw3, Experiment); probs = // Red Black None // Type Continue Replacement Draw3 Experiment ((((((0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true Red Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true Red Sample 2 balls (0.4, 0.6, 0)), // Type1 true true Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true Black Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true Black Sample 2 balls (0.4, 0.6, 0)), // Type1 true true Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true true None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1))), // Type1 true true None Sequential sampl (((0, 0, 1), // Type1 true false Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true false Red Sample 1 ball (0.3333332, 0.6666669, 0), // Type1 true false Red Sample 2 balls (0.3333311, 0.6666688, 0)), // Type1 true false Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 true false Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true false Black Sample 1 ball (0.4444444, 0.5555555, 0), // Type1 true false Black Sample 2 balls (0.4444409, 0.5555591, 0)), // Type1 true false Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 true false None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true false None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 true false None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)))), // Type1 true false None Sequential sampl ((((0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true Red Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true Red Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type1 false true Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true Black Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true Black Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type1 false true Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false true None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1))), // Type1 false true None Sequential sampl (((0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false Red Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false Red Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type1 false false Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false Black Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false Black Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type1 false false Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type1 false false None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1))))), // Type1 false false None Sequential sampl (((((0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true Red Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true Red Sample 2 balls (0.9, 0.1, 0)), // Type2 true true Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true Black Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true Black Sample 2 balls (0.9, 0.1, 0)), // Type2 true true Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true true None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1))), // Type2 true true None Sequential sampl (((0, 0, 1), // Type2 true false Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true false Red Sample 1 ball (0.8888898, 0.1111101, 0), // Type2 true false Red Sample 2 balls (0.88889, 0.11111, 0)), // Type2 true false Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 true false Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true false Black Sample 1 ball (1, 0, 0), // Type2 true false Black Sample 2 balls (1, 0, 0)), // Type2 true false Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 true false None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true false None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 true false None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)))), // Type2 true false None Sequential sampl ((((0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true Red Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true Red Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type2 false true Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true Black Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true Black Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type2 false true Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false true None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1))), // Type2 false true None Sequential sampl (((0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false Red No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false Red Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false Red Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type2 false false Red Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false Black No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false Black Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false Black Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)), // Type2 false false Black Sequential sampl ((0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false None No sample (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false None Sample 1 ball (0, 0, 1), // Type2 false false None Sample 2 balls (0, 0, 1)))))); // Type2 false false None Sequential sampl ; title = "Draw Another Ball "; whenchanged = 1082012037; belief = (0.0937499, 0.0937501, 0.8125); visual V1 { center = (426, 408); height = 10; }; }; node Guess { kind = DECISION; discrete = TRUE; states = (Type1, Type2); parents = (Experiment, Draw3, Continue, Replacement, Draw4); functable = // Experiment Draw3 Continue Replacement Draw4 (((((Type1, // No sample Red true true Red Type1, // No sample Red true true Black Type1), // No sample Red true true None (Type1, // No sample Red true false Red Type1, // No sample Red true false Black Type1)), // No sample Red true false None ((Type1, // No sample Red false true Red Type1, // No sample Red false true Black Type1), // No sample Red false true None (Type1, // No sample Red false false Red Type1, // No sample Red false false Black Type1))), // No sample Red false false None (((Type1, // No sample Black true true Red Type1, // No sample Black true true Black Type1), // No sample Black true true None (Type1, // No sample Black true false Red Type1, // No sample Black true false Black Type1)), // No sample Black true false None ((Type1, // No sample Black false true Red Type1, // No sample Black false true Black Type1), // No sample Black false true None (Type1, // No sample Black false false Red Type1, // No sample Black false false Black Type1))), // No sample Black false false None (((Type1, // No sample None true true Red Type1, // No sample None true true Black Type1), // No sample None true true None (Type1, // No sample None true false Red Type1, // No sample None true false Black Type1)), // No sample None true false None ((Type1, // No sample None false true Red Type1, // No sample None false true Black Type1), // No sample None false true None (Type1, // No sample None false false Red Type1, // No sample None false false Black Type1)))), // No sample None false false None ((((Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red true true Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red true true Black Type2), // Sample 1 ball Red true true None (Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red true false Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red true false Black Type2)), // Sample 1 ball Red true false None ((Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red false true Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red false true Black Type2), // Sample 1 ball Red false true None (Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red false false Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Red false false Black Type2))), // Sample 1 ball Red false false None (((Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black true true Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black true true Black Type1), // Sample 1 ball Black true true None (Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black true false Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black true false Black Type1)), // Sample 1 ball Black true false None ((Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black false true Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black false true Black Type1), // Sample 1 ball Black false true None (Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black false false Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball Black false false Black Type1))), // Sample 1 ball Black false false None (((Type1, // Sample 1 ball None true true Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball None true true Black Type1), // Sample 1 ball None true true None (Type1, // Sample 1 ball None true false Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball None true false Black Type1)), // Sample 1 ball None true false None ((Type1, // Sample 1 ball None false true Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball None false true Black Type1), // Sample 1 ball None false true None (Type1, // Sample 1 ball None false false Red Type1, // Sample 1 ball None false false Black Type1)))), // Sample 1 ball None false false None ((((Type1, // Sample 2 balls Red true true Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Red true true Black Type2), // Sample 2 balls Red true true None (Type2, // Sample 2 balls Red true false Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Red true false Black Type1)), // Sample 2 balls Red true false None ((Type1, // Sample 2 balls Red false true Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Red false true Black Type2), // Sample 2 balls Red false true None (Type1, // Sample 2 balls Red false false Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Red false false Black Type2))), // Sample 2 balls Red false false None (((Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black true true Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black true true Black Type1), // Sample 2 balls Black true true None (Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black true false Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black true false Black Type1)), // Sample 2 balls Black true false None ((Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black false true Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black false true Black Type1), // Sample 2 balls Black false true None (Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black false false Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls Black false false Black Type1))), // Sample 2 balls Black false false None (((Type1, // Sample 2 balls None true true Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls None true true Black Type1), // Sample 2 balls None true true None (Type1, // Sample 2 balls None true false Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls None true false Black Type1)), // Sample 2 balls None true false None ((Type1, // Sample 2 balls None false true Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls None false true Black Type1), // Sample 2 balls None false true None (Type1, // Sample 2 balls None false false Red Type1, // Sample 2 balls None false false Black Type1)))), // Sample 2 balls None false false None ((((Type2, // Sequential sampl Red true true Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Red true true Black Type1), // Sequential sampl Red true true None (Type2, // Sequential sampl Red true false Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Red true false Black Type1)), // Sequential sampl Red true false None ((Type1, // Sequential sampl Red false true Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Red false true Black Type2), // Sequential sampl Red false true None (Type1, // Sequential sampl Red false false Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Red false false Black Type2))), // Sequential sampl Red false false None (((Type1, // Sequential sampl Black true true Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Black true true Black Type1), // Sequential sampl Black true true None (Type1, // Sequential sampl Black true false Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Black true false Black Type1)), // Sequential sampl Black true false None ((Type1, // Sequential sampl Black false true Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Black false true Black Type1), // Sequential sampl Black false true None (Type1, // Sequential sampl Black false false Red Type1, // Sequential sampl Black false false Black Type1))), // Sequential sampl Black false false None (((Type1, // Sequential sampl None true true Red Type1, // Sequential sampl None true true Black Type1), // Sequential sampl None true true None (Type1, // Sequential sampl None true false Red Type1, // Sequential sampl None true false Black Type1)), // Sequential sampl None true false None ((Type1, // Sequential sampl None false true Red Type1, // Sequential sampl None false true Black Type1), // Sequential sampl None false true None (Type1, // Sequential sampl None false false Red Type1, // Sequential sampl None false false Black Type1))))); // Sequential sampl None false false None ; title = "Guess Urn"; whenchanged = 1082012085; visual V1 { center = (486, 138); height = 1; }; }; node U { kind = UTILITY; discrete = FALSE; measure = RATIO; chance = DETERMIN; parents = (Type, Guess, Experiment, Continue); functable = // Type Guess Experiment Continue ((((40, // Type1 Type1 No sample true 40), // Type1 Type1 No sample false (32, // Type1 Type1 Sample 1 ball true 32), // Type1 Type1 Sample 1 ball false (28, // Type1 Type1 Sample 2 balls true 28), // Type1 Type1 Sample 2 balls false (26.5, // Type1 Type1 Sequential sampl true 31)), // Type1 Type1 Sequential sampl false ((-5, // Type1 Type2 No sample true -5), // Type1 Type2 No sample false (-13, // Type1 Type2 Sample 1 ball true -13), // Type1 Type2 Sample 1 ball false (-17, // Type1 Type2 Sample 2 balls true -17), // Type1 Type2 Sample 2 balls false (-18.5, // Type1 Type2 Sequential sampl true -14))), // Type1 Type2 Sequential sampl false (((-20, // Type2 Type1 No sample true -20), // Type2 Type1 No sample false (-28, // Type2 Type1 Sample 1 ball true -28), // Type2 Type1 Sample 1 ball false (-32, // Type2 Type1 Sample 2 balls true -32), // Type2 Type1 Sample 2 balls false (-33.5, // Type2 Type1 Sequential sampl true -29)), // Type2 Type1 Sequential sampl false ((100, // Type2 Type2 No sample true 100), // Type2 Type2 No sample false (92, // Type2 Type2 Sample 1 ball true 92), // Type2 Type2 Sample 1 ball false (88, // Type2 Type2 Sample 2 balls true 88), // Type2 Type2 Sample 2 balls false (86.5, // Type2 Type2 Sequential sampl true 91)))); // Type2 Type2 Sequential sampl false ; title = "Utility"; whenchanged = 1086396673; visual V1 { center = (486, 54); height = 4; }; }; ElimOrder = (Type, Guess, Draw4, Replacement, Continue, Draw3, Experiment); };