MML Time Series

Below is a list of some publications pertaining to Minimum Message Length (MML) inference of time series, econometrics and sequential data.

[See also Ray Solomonoff (1926-2009) 85th memorial conference (Wedn 30 Nov - Fri 2 Dec 2011), 1st Call for Papers.]

[The papers below are requestable in printed hard copy from either [more reliable] writing a letter to my ``snail mail'' postal address {see my home page,} or [perhaps less reliable] e-mail to enquiries At (if you send your name and postal address and make it clear what you want).]

F. Vahid (1999), `Partial pooling: A possible answer to "To pool or not to pool" ', in Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting, R. F. Engle and H. White (eds), Oxford, Oxford University Press, 410- 428, 1999.

Viswanathan, M., Wallace, C.S., D.L. Dowe and K.B. Korb (1999). Finding Cutpoints in Noisy Binary Sequences - A Revised Empirical Evaluation, pp405-416, Proc. 12th Australian Joint Conf. on Artif. Intelligence, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI) 1747 (Springer-Verlag), Sydney, Australia, December 1999. [p405, p406, p407, p408, p409, p410, p411, p412, p413, p414, p415, p416]

Fitzgibbon, L.J., L. Allison and D.L. Dowe (2000). Minimum Message Length grouping of ordered data. Proc. 11th Int. Workshop on Algorithmic Learning Theory (ALT 2000), Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI) 1968 (Springer-Verlag), pp56-70, Sydney, Australia, 11-13 December 2000. (DETYA C1 fully refereed journal article.)

Fitzgibbon, L.J., D.L. Dowe and L. Allison (2002b). Change-Point Estimation Using New Minimum Message Length Approximations. Proc. 7th Pacific Rim International Conference on Artificial Intelligence (PRICAI'2002), Tokyo, Japan, 18-22 August, 2002, Published in Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI) 2417 (Springer-Verlag), pp244-254. 02.ref (was also

Fitzgibbon, L.J., D. L. Dowe and F. Vahid (2004). Minimum Message Length Autoregressive Model Order Selection. In M. Palanaswami, C. Chandra Sekhar, G. Kumar Venayagamoorthy, S. Mohan and M. K. Ghantasala (eds.), International Conference on Intelligent Sensing and Information Processing (ICISIP), Chennai, India, 4-7 January 2004 (ISBN: 0-7803-8243-9, IEEE Catalogue Number: 04EX783), pp439-444.
% MML time series, MML econometrics, MML econometric time series, MML autoregression, MML autoregressive time series, MML AR, minimum message length time series, minimum message length econometrics, minimum message length econometric time series, minimum message length autoregression, minimum message length autoregressive time series, minimum message length AR

Collie, M.J., D.L. Dowe and L.J. Fitzgibbon (2005). Stock Market Simulation and Inference Technique, Fifth International Conference on Hybrid Intelligent Systems (HIS'05), Rio de Janeiro - Brazil, November 06-09, 2005.

Collie, M.J., D.L. Dowe and L.J. Fitzgibbon (2005b). Trading rule search with autoregressive inference agents, Technical Report 2005/174 (abstract available), School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Monash University, Clayton 3168, Melbourne, Australia, 10pp, 2005.

Sak, M., D.L. Dowe and S. Ray (2005). Minimum Message Length Moving Average Time Series Data Mining. In Proc. ICSC Congress on Computational Intelligence Methods and Applications (1st International Symposium on Advanced Computing in Financial Markets (ACFM2005, CIMA2005,, Istanbul, Turkey, Dec. 15-17, 2005. [Final camera ready copy was submitted on Oct. 31, 2005.]

[maybe not this paper] D F Schmidt, A P Paplinski and G S Lowe (2005): Adaptive Control of Hydraulic Systems with MML Inferred RBF Networks, Proceedings of the 2005 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA 2005), Barcelona, Spain, IEEE, Barcelona, Spain, ISBN: 0-7803-8915-8, pp 2379-2385. [maybe not this paper]

Molloy, S., D.W. Albrecht, D. L. Dowe and K.M. Ting (2006). Model-Based Clustering of Sequential Data, Proc. 5th Annual Hawaii Intl. Conf. on Statistics, Mathematics and Related Fields, 22 pages, 16th - 18th January, 2006, Hawaii, U.S.A.
author = {Molloy, S. B. and Albrecht, D. W. and Dowe, D. L. and Ting, K. M.},
title = {Model-{B}ased {C}lustering of {S}equential {D}ata},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 5th Annual Hawaii International Conference
on Statistics, Mathematics and Related Fields},
year = {2006},
month = {January},

G. Visser, D. L. Dowe and J. P. Uotila (2009). "Enhancing MML Clustering using Context Data with Climate Applications", Springer Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI) (Proc. 22nd Australian Joint Conf. on Artificial Intelligence (AI'09), Melbourne, Australia, Dec. 2009), pp350-359.

These papers above are about MML time series.
The papers and book below are less about time series but more about general Minimum Message Length (MML) theory.

Comley, Joshua W. and D L Dowe (2005). Minimum Message Length, MDL and Generalised Bayesian Networks with Asymmetric Languages, Chapter 11 (pp265-294) in P. Gru:nwald, I. J. Myung and M. A. Pitt (eds.), Advances in Minimum Description Length: Theory and Applications, M.I.T. Press (MIT Press), April 2005, ISBN 0-262-07262-9. [Final camera ready copy was submitted in October 2003.] pp265-284 and pp285-294; p265, p266, p267, p268, p269, p270, p271, p272, p273, p274, p275, p276, p277, p278, p279, p280, p281, p282, p283, p284, p285, p286, p287, p288, p289, p290, p291, p292, p293, p294 Table of contents is at

% {This concerns all of Generalised Bayesian nets, MML Bayesian nets, and
% MML Bayesian networks (or Generalised Bayes nets, MML Bayes nets, and
% MML Bayes net, MML Bayes networks (or Minimum Message Length Bayes nets
% and Minimum Message Length Bayes networks) or even mixed Bayes nets or
% mixed Bayesian nets or mixed Bayesian nets or mixed Bayesian networks)
% (or Generalised graphical models or MML graphical models, or
% Generalised directed graphical models or MML directed graphical models,
% or even mixed graphical models or MML mixed graphical models, or
% mixed directed graphical models or MML mixed directed graphical models);
% *and* deals with a mix of both continuous and discrete variables.
% There are decision trees in the internal nodes of these Bayesian nets.}

Book: Wallace, C.S. (2005) [posthumous], Statistical and Inductive Inference by Minimum Message Length, Springer (Series: Information Science and Statistics), 2005, XVI, 432 pp., 22 illus., Hardcover, ISBN: 0-387-23795-X. (Link to table of contents, chapter headings and more.)

Maheswaran, T., J.G. Sanjayan, D. L. Dowe and P.J. Tan (2006). "MML Mixture Models of Heterogeneous Poisson Processes with Uniform Outliers for Bridge Deterioration", in A. Sattar and B.-H. Kang (eds.), Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI) 4304, Springer [Proc. 19th ACS Australian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Hobart, Tasmania, 4-8 December 2006], pp322-331.

Visser, G. and D. L. Dowe (2007). "Minimum Message Length Clustering Of Spatially-Correlated Data with Varying Inter-Class Penalties", 6th IEEE International Conference on Computer and Information Science (ICIS 2007), 11-13 July 2007, Melbourne, Australia, pp17-22.

Dowe, D.L., S. Gardner and G.R. Oppy (2007), "Bayes Not Bust! Why Simplicity is no problem for Bayesians", Brit. J. Philos. Sci. (BJPS), Vol. 58, No. 4 (December 2007), pp709-754 (and here): Abstract, full text (and here), .pdf (and here); doi: 10.1093/bjps/axm033.

D. L. Dowe (2008a), "Foreword re C. S. Wallace", Computer Journal, Vol. 51, No. 5 (Sept. 2008) [Christopher Stewart WALLACE (1933-2004) memorial special issue], pp523-560 (and here). 10.1093/comjnl/bxm117.

  • Links to (links to) some of David Dowe's publications from some of the following years: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006.

    Other links - links to pages on:
  • Minimum message length (MML),
  • Chris Wallace (1933-2004) (developer of MML in 1968),
  • Bayesian Nets using Minimum message length (MML) [with optional decision trees in internal nodes],
  • clustering and mixture modelling,
  • comparisons between MML and the subsequent Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle,
  • data links - including Rob Hyndman's Time Series Data Library and CEC2000's Time series prediction competitions, and (linked to by Eamonn Keogh) UCR Time Series Data Mining Archive,
  • decision trees using Minimum message length (MML),
  • Occam's razor (Ockham's razor),
  • Snob (program for MML clustering and mixture modelling),
  • medical research,
  • a probabilistic sports prediction competition (and further reading on probabilistic scoring),
  • chess and game theory research,
  • do-goody stuff and saving the planet.

  • This page,, was last updated no earlier than 2006.

    Copyright David L. Dowe, Monash University, Australia, 2005, etc.
    Copying is not permitted without expressed permission from David L. Dowe. This WWW page is , and was last updated no earlier than Wed 1st May 2006. E-mail David Dowe, d l d at dot, for more information. WWW (URL): . Copyright Dr David L. Dowe, School of Computer Science and Softw. Engineering, Monash University, Clayton, Vic. 3168, Australia; 1 May 2006, etc.