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Welcome to David Dowe's short course slides.
Lloyd Allison's CIA's 32-Mstate.




Probabilistic prediction




Imagine two surgical procedures, identical in all ways except the medical procedure itself and the success rate.




Procedure A has 60 successes and 40 failures.
Would you predict that a patient undergoing Procedure A would have a success?

Procedure B has 90 successes and 10 failures.
Would you predict that a patient undergoing Procedure B would have a success?

So, would you have any preference for one of these procedures over the other?



Procedure C has 55 successes and 45 failures.
Procedure D has 75 successes and 25 failures.
Procedure E has 95 successes and 5 failures.

Would you predict that a patient undergoing Procedures C, D, E would have a success?

Would you have any preference for one of these procedures over the other?



What sort of pay-off on a $1 bet would you need before you were willing to bet that A would be a success?

B? C? D? E?




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Lloyd Allison's CIA's 32-Mstate.


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